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Determinants of Induced Investment

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Estimated time: 12 minutes
  • Introduction
  • MEC vs ROI
  • Importance of MEC in Keynesian Theory
  • Key Points: Determinants of Induced Investment
CISCE: Class 12

Introduction

  • What is Induced Investment? — It is the investment that businesspeople make when they expect to earn a good profit from it.
  • Two key questions before investing:
    "How much profit will I earn?" → This is called Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC)
    "How much will it cost me to borrow money?" → This is called Rate of Interest (ROI)
  • MEC (Marginal Efficiency of Capital) — Simply the expected rate of profit that a businessman hopes to get from a new investment like a machine or factory.
  • ROI (Rate of Interest) — The cost of borrowing money from a bank, or the return you lose by not keeping your money in savings.
  • In simple words: A businessman will invest only when he sees a chance to earn more than what he has to pay — and MEC and ROI are the two tools he uses to make this decision.
CISCE: Class 12

MEC vs ROI

Entrepreneurs compare MEC and ROI before making any investment decision:
Condition Meaning Effect on Investment
MEC > ROI Expected profit exceeds borrowing cost  Favourable — Investment increases
MEC = ROI Expected profit equals borrowing cost  Neutral — Equilibrium; no further new investment
MEC < ROI Expected profit is less than borrowing cost  Unfavourable — Investment decreases

How equilibrium is reached: Entrepreneurs keep investing as long as MEC > ROI. With each additional investment, MEC gradually falls (due to diminishing returns). Eventually, MEC falls to equal ROI — this is the equilibrium level of investment.

CISCE: Class 12

Importance of MEC in Keynesian Theory

Keynes argued that MEC plays a bigger role than interest rates in determining investment levels. Here's why:

  • During economic crises, MEC collapses because entrepreneurs suddenly lose confidence about future profits. Even if interest rates are pushed to near-zero, businesses refuse to invest because expected returns are too low.
  • This situation — where low interest rates fail to stimulate investment — is called the Liquidity Trap.
  • Real-world example: During the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, central banks in the US, UK, and Europe cut interest rates to nearly 0%. Yet investment remained very low for years because business confidence (MEC) had collapsed.

Keynes wrote in his General Theory: The predominant explanation of a crisis is "not primarily a rise in the rate of interest, but a sudden collapse in the marginal efficiency of capital".

CISCE: Class 12

Key Points: Determinants of Induced Investment

  • Marginal Efficiency of Capital (MEC): Expected rate of profit on new investment; depends on entrepreneurs’ expectations, optimism, and business outlook.
  • Rate of Interest (ROI): Cost of borrowing; higher ROI discourages investment, lower ROI encourages it.
  • Investment decision rule: Investment increases when MEC > ROI, stops when MEC = ROI.
  • Keynes emphasized that changes in MEC, rather than interest rate alone, play a major role in affecting investment and employment.

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