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An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probabilities of an accident for them are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15, respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver or a car driver?
Concept: Bayes’ Theorem
| CASE-BASED/DATA-BASED |
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| An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes: those who are accident prone and those who are not. The company’s statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident at some time within a fixed one-year period with a probability 0.6, whereas this probability is 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. The company knows that 20 percent of the population is accident prone. |
Based on the given information, answer the following questions.
- What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy?
- Suppose that a new policyholder has an accident within a year of purchasing a policy. What is the probability that he or she is accident prone?
Concept: Bayes’ Theorem
Given two independent events A and B such that P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6 and P(A' ∩ B') is ______.
Concept: Independent Events
In a factory, machine A produces 30% of total output, machine B produces 25% and the machine C produces the remaining output. The defective items produced by machines A, B and C are 1%,1.2%, 2% respectively. An item is picked at random from a day's output and found to be defective. Find the probability that it was produced by machine B?
Concept: Bayes’ Theorem
There are two boxes, namely box-I and box-II. Box-I contains 3 red and 6 black balls. Box-II contains 5 red and 5 black balls. One of the two boxes, is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random. The ball drawn is found to be red. Find the probability that this red ball comes out from box-II.
Concept: Bayes’ Theorem
If A and B are two events such that `P(A/B) = 2 xx P(B/A)` and P(A) + P(B) = `2/3`, then P(B) is equal to ______.
Concept: Conditional Probability
If for two events A and B, P(A – B) = `1/5` and P(A) = `3/5`, then `P(B/A)` is equal to ______.
Concept: Conditional Probability
If A and B are two independent events such that P(A) = `1/3` and P(B) = `1/4`, then `P(B^'/A)` is ______.
Concept: Conditional Probability
A problem in Mathematics is given to three students whose chances of solving it are `1/2, 1/3, 1/4` respectively. If the events of their solving the problem are independent then the probability that the problem will be solved, is ______.
Concept: Independent Events
Read the following passage and answer the questions given below:
In an Office three employees Jayant, Sonia and Oliver process incoming copies of a certain form. Jayant processes 50% of the forms, Sonia processes 20% and Oliver the remaining 30% of the forms. Jayant has an error rate of 0.06, Sonia has an error rate of 0.04 and Oliver has an error rate of 0.03.![]() |
Based on the above information, answer the following questions.
- Find the probability that Sonia processed the form and committed an error.
- Find the total probability of committing an error in processing the form.
- The manager of the Company wants to do a quality check. During inspection, he selects a form at random from the days output of processed form. If the form selected at random has an error, find the probability that the form is not processed by Jayant.
OR
Let E be the event of committing an error in processing the form and let E1, E2 and E3 be the events that Jayant, Sonia and Oliver processed the form. Find the value of `sum_(i = 1)^3P(E_i|E)`.
Concept: Multiplication Theorem of Probability


