Definitions [11]
The arithmetic mean (or, simply, mean) of a set of numbers is obtained by dividing the sum of the numbers in the set by the number of numbers.
\[\mathbf{Mean}=\frac{\left(x_1+x_2+x_3+\ldots+x_n\right)}{n}=\frac{\Sigma x_i}{n}\]
Median is the value of the middle-most observation(s). The median is a measure of central tendency which gives the value of the middle-most observation in the data.
The mode is the value of the observation that occurs most frequently; i.e., the observation with the maximum frequency is called the mode.
The probability distribution of the number of successes in an experiment consisting of n-Bernoulli trials obtained by the binomial expansion of (q + p )ⁿ is called the binomial distribution.
where p = probability of success and
q = probability of failure
\[P\left(X=r\right)=^{n}C_{r}p^{r}q^{n-r}\] is called probability function.
A set of favourable outcomes of a given sample space is an ‘event’. Event is a subset of the sample space.
- Events are denoted by capital letters A, B, C, D etc.
- The number of elements in event A is written n(A).
- Since A ⊆ S, always 0 ≤ n(A) ≤ n(S).
- Example: two coins tossed, A = getting at least one tail → A = {TT, TH, HT}, n(A) = 3.
The outcomes satisfying a particular condition are called favourable outcomes.
Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not depend on the other.
For two events E and F:
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E and F are independent if P(F | E) = P(F), when \[P(E) \neq 0\].
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Similarly, E and F are independent if P(E | F) = P(E), when \[P(F) \neq 0\].
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An equivalent and most commonly used test is:
If A and B are two events associated with the same sample space of a random experiment, the conditional probability of the event A given that B has occurred, i.e. P(A∣B), is given by
If a random variable X takes values x₁, x₂, …, xₙ with respective probabilities p₁, p₂, …, pₙ, then it is called the probability distribution of X.
A discrete random variable X is said to have the Poisson distribution with parameter m > 0, if its p.m. is given by
\[P(X=x)=\frac{e^{-m}m^x}{x!}\] = 0, 1, 2, ....
A sequence of dichotomous experiments is called a sequence of Bernoulli trials if it satisfies the following conditions:
- The trials are independent.
- The probability of success remains the same in all trials.
Formulae [5]
Direct Method:
\[\bar{x}=\frac{\sum f_ix_i}{\sum f_i}\]
where xi = class mark, fi = frequency
Short-cut (Assumed Mean) Method:
\[\bar{x} = A+\frac{\sum f_id_i}{\sum f_i}\]
where di = xi - A
A is the assumed mean
Step-deviation Method:
\[\bar{x}=a+h\frac{\sum f_iu_i}{\sum f_i}\]
where \[u_i=\frac{x_i-a}{h}\]
h is the class width / common factor
If the number of data points (n) is odd, the median is,
Median = `((n+1)/2)^(th)` term
If n is even, the median is the average of the values at positions
Median = Average of `(n/2)^(th)` and `(n/2+1)^(th)` values
G.M. between a and b
G2 = ab
G =\[\sqrt{ab}\]
G is the geometric mean between a and b.
\[P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\], where \[P(B) \neq 0\].
\[P(B | A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)}\], where \[P(A) \neq 0\].
Multiplication rule: \[P(A \cap B) = P(B) \cdot P(A | B) = P(A) \cdot P(B | A)\].
Complement form: \[P(A' | B) = 1 - P(A | B)\], P(B) ≠ 0
Theorems and Laws [2]
For two events:
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\[P(E \cap F) = P(F) \cdot P(E | F)\],\[ P(F) \neq 0. \]
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\[P(E \cap F) = P(E) \cdot P(F | E)\],\[ P(E) \neq 0. \]
For three events:
- \[P(E \cap F \cap G) = P(E) \cdot P(F | E) \cdot P(G | E \cap F)\], \[ P(E) \neq 0. \] and \[ P(E∩F) \neq 0. \]
If B1, B2,..., Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events and if A is an event consequent to these Bi's, then for each i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n,
Key Points
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Multiplication theorem is used to find the probability of simultaneous occurrence of events.
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For two events: \[P(E \cap F) = P(E) \cdot P(F | E)\]
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Another equivalent form is \[P(E \cap F) = P(F) \cdot P(E | F)\].
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For three events: \[P(E \cap F \cap G) = P(E) \cdot P(F | E) \cdot P(G | E \cap F)\].
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Most “without replacement” questions are solved using this theorem.
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Always define events before solving a probability problem.
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Bayes' Theorem works from effect to cause.
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Prior probability means “before observation”.
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Posterior probability means “after observation”.
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The observed event is usually given in the question statement.
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The required answer is often a probability of the form P(cause ∣ observed event).
- The sample space \[ S \] contains all possible outcomes.
- An event is a subset of the sample space.
- A simple event has one outcome; a compound event has more than one outcome.
- A certain event has probability \[ 1; \] an impossible event has probability \[ 0. \]
- The complement of \[ A \] is \[ A', \] and \[ P(A') = 1 - P(A). \]
- Mutually exclusive events cannot occur together: \[ A \cap B = \varnothing. \]
- Exhaustive events together cover the entire sample space: \[ A \cup B = S. \]
- For equally likely outcomes, \[ P(A) = \frac{n(A)}{n(S)}. \]
- For any two events, \[ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B). \]
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Independent events do not influence each other.
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The standard test is \[P(E \cap F) = P(E)P(F)\].
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Conditional form: \[P(F | E) = P(F)\] and \[P(E | F) = P(E)\], when defined.
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If two events are independent, related complement pairs are also independent.
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Mutually exclusive events and independent events are different.
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For independent events A and B, \[P(A \cup B) = 1 - P(A')P(B')\].
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For three events, mutual independence requires pairwise conditions and the condition involving all three together.
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Conditional probability means probability under a given condition.
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The formula is \[P(A | B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\], where \[P(B) \neq 0\].
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First restrict the sample space according to the given condition, then count the favourable outcomes.
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The numerator represents outcomes common to both events.
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Do not confuse P(A | B) with P(B | A).
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For independent events, P(A | B) = P(A), provided P(B) ≠ 0.
Concepts [24]
- Measures of Discretion
- Arithmetic Mean
- Mean of Grouped Data
- Basic Concept of Median
- Basic Concept of Mode
- Standard Deviation
- Variance
- Mean Deviation
- Geometric Mean
- Harmonic Mean (H.M.)
- Coefficient of Variation
- Addition Theorem of Probability
- Multiplication Theorem of Probability
- Bayes’ Theorem
- Probability using Binomial Distribution
- Concept of Probability
- Elementary Types of Events and Properties of Probability
- Odds in Favour and Against
- Boole's Inequality
- Demorgan's Law
- Independent Events
- Conditional Probability
- Probability Distribution of Discrete Random Variables
- Poisson Distribution
