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प्रश्न
Define secular trend
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उत्तर
It is a general tendency of time series to increase or decrease or stagnates during a long period of time, an upward tendency is usually observed in population of a country, production, sales, prices in industries, income or individuals etc.
A downward tendency is observed in deaths, epidemics, prices of electronic gadgets, water sources, mortality rate etc.
It is not necessarily that the increase or decrease should be in the same direction throughout the given period of time.
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संबंधित प्रश्न
What is the need for studying time series?
Discuss about irregular variation
Compute the average seasonal movement for the following series
| Year | Quarterly Production | |||
| I | II | III | IV | |
| 2002 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| 2203 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3. | 4.1 |
| 2004 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 37 | 4.2 |
| 2005 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3 | 4.4 |
| 2006 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
Find the trend of production by the method of a five-yearly period of moving average for the following data:
| Year | Production ('000) |
| 1979 | 126 |
| 1980 | 123 |
| 1981 | 117 |
| 1982 | 128 |
| 1983 | 125 |
| 1984 | 124 |
| 1985 | 130 |
| 1986 | 114 |
| 1987 | 122 |
| 1988 | 129 |
| 1989 | 118 |
| 1990 | 123 |
Choose the correct alternative:
A time series is a set of data recorded
Choose the correct alternative:
The value of ‘b’ in the trend line y = a + bx is
Using three yearly moving averages, Determine the trend values from the following data.
| Year | Profit | Year | Profit |
| 2001 | 142 | 2007 | 241 |
| 2002 | 148 | 2008 | 263 |
| 2003 | 154 | 2009 | 280 |
| 2004 | 146 | 2010 | 302 |
| 2005 | 157 | 2011 | 326 |
| 2006 | 202 | 2012 | 353 |
Fit a straight line trend by the method of least squares to the following data
| Year | 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 |
| Sales | 50.3 | 52.7 | 49.3 | 57.3 | 56.8 | 60.7 | 62.1 | 58.7 |
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