Advertisements
Advertisements
प्रश्न
Solve the following:
In a factory which manufactures bulbs, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35% and 40% of the bulbs. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bulbs. A bulbs is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the machine B?
Advertisements
उत्तर
Let E1, E2, E3 be the events that bulb is manufactured by machines A, B, C respectively.
E1, E2, E3 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
It is given that,
P(E1) = 25% = `25/100`, P(E2) = 35% = `35/100`, P(E3) = 40% = `40/100`
Let D ≡ the event that bulb is defective.
It is given that machines A, B, C have outputs of which 5% 4%, 2% are defective,
∴ `"P"("D"/"E"_1) = 5/100, "P"("D"/"E"_2) = 4/100, "P"("D"/"E"_3) = 2/100`
By Baye's Theorem, the required probability = `"P"("E"_2/"D")`
= `("P"("E"_2)*"P"("D"/"E"_2))/("P"("E"_1)*"P"("D"/"E"_1) + "P"("E"_2)*"P"("D"/"E"_2) + "P"("E"_3)*"P"("D"/"E"_3))`
= `((35/100)*(4/100))/((25/100)*(5/100) + (35/100)*(4/100) + (40/100)*(2/100))`
= `140/(125 + 140 + 80)`
= `140/345`
= `28/69`.
APPEARS IN
संबंधित प्रश्न
An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its colour is noted and is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the colour drawn are put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. What is the probability that the second ball is red?
A laboratory blood test is 99% effective in detecting a certain disease when it is in fact, present. However, the test also yields a false positive result for 0.5% of the healthy person tested (that is, if a healthy person is tested, then, with probability 0.005, the test will imply he has the disease). If 0.1 percent of the population actually has the disease, what is the probability that a person has the disease given that his test result is positive?
Two groups are competing for the position on the board of directors of a corporation. The probabilities that the first and the second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if the first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product is 0.7 and the corresponding probability is 0.3 if the second group wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced was by the second group.
A manufacturer has three machine operators A, B and C. The first operator A produces 1% defective items, where as the other two operators B and C produce 5% and 7% defective items respectively. A is on the job for 50% of the time, B is on the job for 30% of the time and C is on the job for 20% of the time. A defective item is produced, what is the probability that was produced by A?
Often it is taken that a truthful person commands, more respect in the society. A man is known to speak the truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six.
Do you also agree that the value of truthfulness leads to more respect in the society?
Three machines E1, E2 and E3 in a certain factory producing electric bulbs, produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the total daily output of electric bulbs. It is known that 4% of the bulbs produced by each of machines E1 and E2are defective and that 5% of those produced by machine E3 are defective. If one bulb is picked up at random from a day's production, calculate the probability that it is defective.
An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The probabilities of an accident for them are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15, respectively. One of the insured persons meets with an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver or a car driver?
A speaks the truth 8 times out of 10 times. A die is tossed. He reports that it was 5. What is the probability that it was actually 5?
The contents of three urns are as follows:
Urn 1 : 7 white, 3 black balls, Urn 2 : 4 white, 6 black balls, and Urn 3 : 2 white, 8 black balls. One of these urns is chosen at random with probabilities 0.20, 0.60 and 0.20 respectively. From the chosen urn two balls are drawn at random without replacement. If both these balls are white, what is the probability that these came from urn 3?
Suppose a girl throws a die. If she gets 1 or 2, she tosses a coin three times and notes the number of tails. If she gets 3, 4, 5 or 6, she tosses a coin once and notes whether a 'head' or 'tail' is obtained. If she obtained exactly one 'tail', then what is the probability that she threw 3, 4, 5 or 6 with the die?
A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the envelope just two consecutive letters ON are visible. What is the probability that the letter has come from
(i) LONDON (ii) CLIFTON?
An insurance company insured 3000 scooters, 4000 cars and 5000 trucks. The probabilities of the accident involving a scooter, a car and a truck are 0.02, 0.03 and 0.04 respectively. One of the insured vehicles meet with an accident. Find the probability that it is a (i) scooter (ii) car (iii) truck.
Suppose we have four boxes A, B, C, D containing coloured marbles as given below:
Figure
One of the boxes has been selected at random and a single marble is drawn from it. If the marble is red, what is the probability that it was drawn from box A? box B? box C?
An item is manufactured by three machines A, B and C. Out of the total number of items manufactured during a specified period, 50% are manufactured on machine A, 30% on Band 20% on C. 2% of the items produced on A and 2% of items produced on B are defective and 3% of these produced on C are defective. All the items stored at one godown. One item is drawn at random and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured on machine A?
There are three coins. One is two-headed coin (having head on both faces), another is biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the times and third is also a biased coin that comes up tail 40% of the times. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, and it shows heads. What is the probability that it was the two-headed coin?
In a factory, machine A produces 30% of the total output, machine B produces 25% and the machine C produces the remaining output. If defective items produced by machines A, B and C are 1%, 1.2%, 2% respectively. Three machines working together produce 10000 items in a day. An item is drawn at random from a day's output and found to be defective. Find the probability that it was produced by machine B?
Three urns A, B and C contain 6 red and 4 white; 2 red and 6 white; and 1 red and 5 white balls respectively. An urn is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. If the ball drawn is found to be red, find the probability that the ball was drawn from urn A.
A factory has three machines A, B and C, which produce 100, 200 and 300 items of a particular type daily. The machines produce 2%, 3% and 5% defective items respectively. One day when the production was over, an item was picked up randomly and it was found to be defective. Find the probability that it was produced by machine A.
In a certain college, 4% of boys and 1% of girls are taller than 1.75 metres. Further more, 60% of the students in the colleges are girls. A student selected at random from the college is found to be taller than 1.75 metres. Find the probability that the selected students is girl.
Three persons A, B and C apply for a job of Manager in a Private Company. Chances of their selection (A, B and C) are in the ratio 1 : 2 :4. The probabilities that A, B and C can introduce changes to improve profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3, respectively. If the change does not take place, find the probability that it is due to the appointment of C.
Of the students in a college, it is known that 60% reside in a hostel and 40% do not reside in hostel. Previous year results report that 30% of students residing in hostel attain A grade and 20% of ones not residing in hostel attain A grade in their annual examination. At the end of the year, one students is chosen at random from the college and he has an A grade. What is the probability that the selected student is a hosteler?
There are three coins. One is two headed coin, another is a biased coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it was the two headed coin?
Let d1, d2, d3 be three mutually exclusive diseases. Let S be the set of observable symptoms of these diseases. A doctor has the following information from a random sample of 5000 patients: 1800 had disease d1, 2100 has disease d2 and the others had disease d3. 1500 patients with disease d1, 1200 patients with disease d2 and 900 patients with disease d3 showed the symptom. Which of the diseases is the patient most likely to have?
A test for detection of a particular disease is not fool proof. The test will correctly detect the disease 90% of the time, but will incorrectly detect the disease 1% of the time. For a large population of which an estimated 0.2% have the disease, a person is selected at random, given the test, and told that he has the disease. What are the chances that the person actually have the disease?
Let d1, d2, d3 be three mutually exclusive diseases. Let S be the set of observable symptoms of these diseases. A doctor has the following information from a random sample of 5000 patients: 1800 had disease d1, 2100 has disease d2, and others had disease d3. 1500 patients with disease d1, 1200 patients with disease d2, and 900 patients with disease d3 showed the symptom. Which of the diseases is the patient most likely to have?
There are three social media groups on a mobile: Group I, Group II and Group III. The probabilities that Group I, Group II and Group III sending the messages on sports are `2/5, 1/2`, and `2/3` respectively. The probability of opening the messages by Group I, Group II and Group III are `1/2, 1/4` and `1/4` respectively. Randomly one of the messages is opened and found a message on sports. What is the probability that the message was from Group III
Solve the following:
The ratio of Boys to Girls in a college is 3:2 and 3 girls out of 500 and 2 boys out of 50 of that college are good singers. A good singer is chosen what is the probability that the chosen singer is a girl?
Suppose that 6% of the people with blood group O are left handed and 10% of those with other blood groups are left handed 30% of the people have blood group O. If a left handed person is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she will have blood group O?
Refer to Question 41 above. If a white ball is selected, what is the probability that it came from Bag 2
In a bolt factory, machines X, Y and Z manufacture 20%, 35% and 45% respectively of the total output. Of their output 8%, 6% and 5% respectively are defective bolts. One bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured in machine Y?
If 'A' and 'B' are two events such that A ⊂ B and P(B) ≠ 0, then which of the following is true :-
There are two boxes, namely box-I and box-II. Box-I contains 3 red and 6 black balls. Box-II contains 5 red and 5 black balls. One of the two boxes, is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random. The ball drawn is found to be red. Find the probability that this red ball comes out from box-II.
The probability that A speaks truth is `4/5`, while the probability for B is `3/4`. The probability that they contradict each other when asked to speak on a fact is ______.
In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let `3/5` be the probability that he knows the answer and `2/5` be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability `1/3`. What is the probability that the student knows the answer, given that he answered it correctly?
In a company, 15% of the employees are graduates and 85% of the employees are non-graduates. As per the annual report of the company, 80% of the graduate employees and 10% of the non-graduate employees are in the Administrative positions. Find the probability that an employee selected at random from those working in administrative positions will be a graduate.
Why is Bayes' Theorem often called a method of finding reverse probability?
Which conditions must hold for \[B_1, B_2, \dots, B_n\] in Bayes' Theorem?
