Question

What would have happened in case the Surat Split did not occur and the Assertive Nationalists were suppressed?

Answer 1

If the Surat Split of 1907 had not occurred and the Assertive Nationalists had been successfully suppressed, the trajectory of the Indian National Movement would have changed drastically.

Here is what would have likely happened:

1. Prolonged Period of Moderate Dominance: Without the radical push from the Assertive Nationalists, the Indian National Congress (INC) would have remained firmly under the control of the Early Nationalists (Moderates). The political strategy would have continued to rely strictly on constitutional methods, such as petitions, prayers, and peaceful resolutions. This would have kept the movement elite-driven, intellectual, and confined to conference halls rather than turning it into a popular struggle.
2. Delay in the Demand for ‘Swaraj’: The demand for Swaraj (Complete Self-Government), which was popularised by the Assertive Nationalists, would have been sidelined. The Congress would have continued to ask for minor administrative concessions, greater Indian representation in civil services, and gradual constitutional reforms within the British Empire, significantly delaying the ultimate goal of absolute independence.
3. Failure to Become a Mass Movement: The Early Nationalists primarily represented the educated urban middle class and struggled to connect with the Indian masses. It was the Assertive Nationalists who brought the lower-middle class, students, and workers into the political fold through the Swadeshi and Boycott movements. Suppressing them would have prevented the early democratisation of the freedom struggle, keeping it disconnected from the common peasantry.
4. Rise of Underground Revolutionary Terrorism: The suppression of open, assertive political resistance would not have extinguished the anger of the youth; instead, it would have driven it underground. Deprived of a legitimate, aggressive political platform within the Congress, frustrated young nationalists would have increasingly turned to secret societies and violent revolutionary methods (such as assassinations and bombings) to challenge British rule, leading to heavy-handed British military retaliation.
5. Weakened Bargaining Power with the British: The British government often entertained the Moderates’ demands only because it feared the rising tide of the Extremists. Without the threat of popular unrest and active resistance posed by the Assertive Nationalists, the British would have had no pressure to grant major concessions, rendering the Morley-Minto Reforms of 1909 even more toothless than they historically were.