Sum
Solve the following problem :
Obtain trend values for the data in Problem 7 using 4-yearly moving averages.
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Solution
Construct the following table for finding 4-yearly centred moving averages:
Year t |
Percentage of Enrolment yt |
4–yearly moving total | 4–yearly moving average | 2 unit moving total | 4–yearly centred moving averages trend value |
1960 | 0 | ||||
1965 | 3 | ||||
10 | 2.5 | ||||
1970 | 3 | 6 | 3 | ||
14 | 3.5 | ||||
1975 | 4 | 7.5 | 3.75 | ||
16 | 4 | ||||
1980 | 4 | 8.75 | 4.375 | ||
19 | 4.75 | ||||
1985 | 5 | 10.5 | 5.25 | ||
23 | 5.75 | ||||
1990 | 6 | 12.5 | 6.25 | ||
27 | 6.75 | ||||
1995 | 8 | 14.75 | 7.375 | ||
32 | 8 | ||||
2000 | 8 | ||||
2005 | 10 | 4.5 |
Concept: Measurement of Secular Trend
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