Probability that A speaks truth is 4/5 . A coin is tossed. A reports that a head appears. The probability that actually there was head is
A. 4/5
B. 1/2
C. 1/5
D. 2/5
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Solution
Let E1 and E2 be the events such that
E1: A speaks truth
E2: A speaks false
Let X be the event that a head appears.
P(E1)=45
Therefore,
P(E2)=1-P(E1)=1-45=15
If a coin is tossed, then it may result in either head (H) or tail (T).
The probability of getting a head is 1/2 whether A speaks truth or not.
`:.P(X|E_1) = P(X|E_2) = 1/2`
The probability that there is actually a head is given by P (E1|X).
Concept: Baye'S Theorem
Is there an error in this question or solution?
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